Author:Dan Gardner
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future – everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Future Babble is genuinely arresting ... required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them.
—— Steven PinkerA rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose.
—— Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of CaliforniaHugely enjoyable
—— Financial TimesIt is a tour de force, absolutely outstanding
—— Matt RidleyThis book should be required reading for America's intelligence agencies
—— Dylan Evans , The GuardianGardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack.
—— The New York Times Book ReviewFrom English birds to the Cape peacock, from elephants to termites, Alan Root illuminates the lives of animals and the environments they live in with a very special skill. Years of study and observation, however passionately followed, do not always go hand in hand with captivating storytelling. Here they are completely woven together, also revealing his fascinating, touching, and very personal life. And he reminds us at the end that “wild places like the Serengeti will be essential for our spiritual well-being”. Yes, indeed
—— Virginia McKennaAlan Root has for half a century made superb wildlife films so innovative in their photography and script that they set new high standards. Filmmaker, naturalist, and adventurer, Alan Root has written a delightful memoir with the verve of a true raconteur, whether being bitten by a mountain gorilla or flying over Mt. Kilimanjaro in a balloon. This book is a must-read for anyone interested in nature films, wildlife, and Africa
—— George SchallerBrave, crazy, hilarious and lucky - the legendary Root completely changed our understanding of East Africa and its wildlife
—— Nigel Winser, Executive Vice President, The Earthwatch InstituteI have long been an admirer of Alan’s work and of his ground- breaking, outstanding documentaries: and now, in this enthralling, witty, and deeply moving memoir that cannot be put down, he brings back a nostalgia for an early days African wilderness that no longer exists. This book is a must for all who love nature and have vowed to protect, as I have, the few remaining fragments of natural world still untarnished by greed
—— Kuki GallmannSome dream of going to Africa. This book will make you dream of an Africa that was, and a life that cannot be repeated. Alan Root lived (and several times died, it seems) a life that most people can scarcely fantasize. Yet he has the scars and medals to prove it, and he shared with the world the fruits of his adventures in his films. Now, read what’s behind those films
—— Carl Safina, author of 'The View From Lazy Point: A Natural Year in an Unnatural World'His honesty and integrity are legendary and this shines through in his book... Nothing, nothing was too small or unimportant to escape his attention. They all had their place in the wonderful balance of nature... He didn't just make wildlife films grow up. He made the best there ever was and will ever be and told his stories with a humour and innuendo and so poignantly that it brought the other living creatures that we live with on our planet level with us, and gave them a status and dignity that they'd never had before...a must for, well, everyone
—— Tony FitzjohnAlan, almost single-handedly in my opinion, made wildlife films grow up
—— David AttenboroughEnthralling, the best true-life adventure story to come out of Africa for years
—— Brian Jackman , Daily TelegraphA truly compelling book, savage and sparkling by turns
—— Kathryn Hughes , Mail on SundayAlan Root’s overflowing life as a dedicated, adventurous film-maker and naturalist is almost the story of wild East Africa itself in those glorious and tragic years surrounding the advent of political independence…a fresh, honest, often moving (and humorous) account, a terrific contribution to the literature
—— Peter MatthiessenRequired reading for anyone who wants to experience the joys and sorrows of conservation in today's Africa
—— Wilbur SmithRoot’s enthralling memoir…is the best true-life adventure story to come out of Africa for years
—— Sunday TelegraphHis is a funny, harrowing, beautifully written love letter to Africa
—— Christopher Hart , Sunday TimesIn this captivating memoir [Root] documents his brushes in the bush and his passion for wildlife
—— Big Issue in the NorthOscar-nominated filmmaker Root has written the most extraordinary love letter to Africa – packed with drama and knowledge, tragedy and hope... A completely gripping and important study of this complex and disappearing natural environment
—— Sally Morris , Daily MailHis is an extraordinary story laced with tragedy
—— Mail on Sunday[Root's] life story, vividly related here, is crammed with incident and adventure. Curious, creative and fearless, he has diced with death on numerous occasions and been mauled several times in his efforts to capture the daily lives of everything from silver-back gorillas to leopards in the wild on film. A gripping account of a life well lived
—— Good Book Guide