The Signal and the Noise

Mar 18, 2025 8:19 PM

Author:Nate Silver

The International Bestseller by 'The Galileo of number crunchers' (Independent)

Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost to society. The rise of 'big data' has the potential to help us predict the future, yet much of it is misleading, useless or distracting.

In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can all learn to detect the true signals amid a noise of data.

'Remarkable and rewarding' Matthew D'Ancona, Sunday Telegraph

'A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically' Guardian

Reviews

Outstanding... I was hooked

—— Tim Harford , Financial Times

One of the more momentous books of the decade

—— The New York Times Book Review

A lucid explanation of how to think probabilistically

—— Guardian

The inhabitants of Westminster are speed-reading The Signal and the Noise... They will find the book remarkable and rewarding

—— Sunday Telegraph

Is there anything now that Nate Silver could tell us that we wouldn't believe?

—— Jonathan Freedland

Fascinating... our age's Brunel

—— Bryan Appleyard , Sunday Times

A surprisingly accessible peek into the world of mathematical probability

—— Daily Telegraph

The Galileo of number crunchers

—— Independent

A 34-year old Delphic Oracle

—— Daily Beast

dense with details, rippling with insight an easy to read... This is everything we need to know.

—— William Leith , Evening Standard

An intense, fluid, intelligent, highly absorbing text that provokes vital questions about sustainability

—— Food Magazine

It's one of those rare books dense with detail, rippling with insight, and easy to read...This is everything we need to know

—— Johanna Thomas-Corr , Scotsman

In bringing food more directly onto the 'plate' of those who think about buildings and cities, she has done us all a great service

—— Richard Wilk , Building and Research Information

Emotional and resonant… Sharp, funny and sad in equal measure

—— Sally Morris , Daily Mail

Written with the same passion and wit that punctuated his reviews for the likes of NME, Coleman shares his journey to reconnecting with the soundtrack of his life

—— Big Issue in the North

I can’t tell you how good it is but I’ll try… It’s a superb analysis

—— William Leith , Evening Standard

A warm, witty and very candid book

—— Natasha Harding , Sun

The book offers experiences and, for anyone whose responsiveness to the world has slackened, a reminder of how full experience can be.

—— Amy Leach , Observer

Tim Dee has a deep feeling for the natural world and an ability to celebrate it in ways that seem fresh and new.

—— Tim Richardson , Literary Review

[Dee] writes so well, and so personably, that he casts a disarming spell over his readers.

—— Mary Blanche Ridge , Tablet

[Dee] is at once a naturalist, environmentalist, journalist, historian and diarist. Dee’s rich writing delights as he imparts his considerable research and observations about life and the state of the world

—— Good Book Guide

[It] belongs in the tradition of 'nature writing', but works with it too putting its beautifully written sentences in the service of description and evocation, but using them to frame a serious conversation about environmental preservation and its opposites; it’s a deeply attractive book and also an important one.

—— Andrew Motion , Guardian

Felt very deeply and pondered very wisely, it takes four areas of the planet and tells their story in ways that bring the plight (and delight) of the earth as a whole within reach.

—— Andrew Motion , Times Literary Supplement

A lyrical, poetic reflection on our relationship with the natural world.

—— Tim Maguire , Edinburgh Evening News

This profound work by Tim Dee is as creative and original as anything on the Man Booker shortlist and arguably more “useful”... The book’s reach is extraordinary.

—— Bel Mooney , Daily Mail

[A] marvellous new memoir.

—— Richard Mabey , New Statesman

An enthralling and unexpected book of what we have made of the natural world

—— Kathleen Jamie , Guardian

This is nature writing at its finest

—— Juanita Coulson , Lady

With the eye of a birdwatcher and the soul of a poet, Dee meditates on our green spaces and what we have made of them

—— Michael Kerr , Telegraph

Dee’s rich writing delights as he imparts his considerable research and observations about life and the state of the world

—— Good Book Guide

Charged with meaning and lyrically luminous, Four Fields is an unquantifiable work – and an unmissable one

—— Melissa Harrison , The Times

Previous Article：Super Brain Next Article：The Spark of Life

Comments

Welcome to zzdbook comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.